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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.